Market Commentary & Analysis
Quarterly Market Overview, Investment Strategy Group, June 2010
In the second quarter, equities posted their worst quarterly losses since the fourth quarter of 2008. Concerns about the strength of the economic recovery, worries about the European debt situation and uncertainty about financial reform led to this retrenchment in global stock markets. Data remain mixed on several fronts as the deleveraging cycle continues, with poor unemployment figures, weak real estate prices, and low inflation juxtaposed with relatively strong corporate earnings growth and improving valuations for many markets.
Market Pulse Report, Investment Strategy Group, June 2010
The stock market has fallen to its lowest levels in about nine months, taking a good chunk of recent gains off the table. Investors have been unsettled by recent jobs data and what it means for sustaining or expanding a still shaky recovery. In addition to recent weak economic data, those who subscribe to technical views have seen a rolling over in some indicators.
Market Pulse Report, Investment Strategy Group, May 2010
The crisis in European economies, which are plagued by high levels of debt, has taken a toll on asset prices worldwide and spurred a dramatic increase in volatility. The "flash crash" in early May, one of the most tumultuous stock market sessions in history, caused the VIX to jump to heightened levels not seen in more than a year.
Perspectives from Across the Pond, Scott Larson, May 2010
Some members of Convergent’s Investment Strategy Group were recently in London meeting with long-only, long-short and multi-strategy managers to gain perspective on their outlook and what they view as potential opportunities in the current environment, and how that may differ from the outlook held by managers based in the United States. Despite the gloomy turmoil gripping Europe, the opportunities described by some of the managers made it seem like they felt the sun was shining.
The Taxman Cometh, Ronald Albahary, CFA®, May 2010
“The Taxman Cometh” provides a brief overview of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, along with its amendment Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010, and offers some initial thoughts regarding the impact to investors.  This piece also reviews certain other measures being considered that may affect investment and wealth management strategies.
Market Pulse Report, Investment Strategy Group, April 2010
Last year's stimulus seems to have worked better than hoped for in pulling the global economy back from the brink of disaster. The initial report on Q1 U.S. real GDP growth came in at a 3.2% clip, not quite as robust as the prior quarter's 5.6% pace but still the third consecutive quarter in positive territory. Looking forward, what can we count on to drive stock prices and the economy higher?
Quarterly Market Overview, Investment Strategy Group, March 2010
An improving economic backdrop helped the U.S. stock market rally through the one-year anniversary of its recent lows. Investor confidence has been buoyed by a steady stream of good corporate earnings news illustrating resumed top line growth and improved balance sheets. Economic concerns do remain on several fronts, however, including unemployment, real estate, ongoing deleveraging and the threat of debt defaults in countries such as Greece.
Market Pulse Report, Investment Strategy Group, March 2010
While the economic recovery appears to be firmly entrenched, we are still mindful of the potential impact of global debt problems, weak labor markets and U.S. budget issues (and increased taxation). Compressed return expectations have us looking to other areas of a portfolio that can add value, including increased long/short exposure in equity, credit and real assets which can do relatively well in sideways or down markets.
Market Pulse Report, Investment Strategy Group, February 2010
Given how far the recovery has progressed, we feel there is now much less catastrophic downside risk to equities and the global economy than there was a year ago. That being said, there are still plenty of things that could throw a wrench into the mix, such as the government fiscal worries in Europe or the weak labor market in the U.S. Longer term, real estate debt remains a concern and the debate over whether either deflation or inflation could cause problems is far from over.
Market Pulse Report, Investment Strategy Group, January 2010
With the recession considered to be over, a key focus for many investors has turned to the shape of the recovery. Even as it was reported that the U.S. economy grew at a 5.7% rate in Q4, the fastest pace in more than six years, some pointed out that it was meager compared with prior recoveries and buoyed mostly by a declining rate of inventory reductions.