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Market Commentary & Analysis
Quarterly Market Overview,
Investment Strategy Group, December 2011
2011 was a year of risk aversion, as investors flocked to the relative safety of U.S. large cap stocks, bonds, and gold while grappling with uncertainty in Europe, political dysfunction in the U.S., slower growth in emerging markets, and fallout from the Japanese tsunami and Arab spring. While bonds posted tremendous returns and the U.S. stock market ended the year almost right where it started, most other asset classes languished—in some cases meaningfully so. This trend continued in the fourth quarter, though international stocks were able to at least post relatively modest gains.
Market Pulse Report,
Investment Strategy Group, December 2011
Years from now, people may look back at 2011 and conclude it was a decent year for the markets. The S&P 500 posted a modest gain and U.S. government bonds generated stellar returns. However, these good tidings mask the underlying macro uncertainty and nerve-racking market volatility that most investors experienced. For many, the key memory might be that diversification simply did not work, and any investment outside of U.S. large cap stocks or government bonds detracted from rather than added to portfolio returns. Allocations thought to be cutting edge (those including international exposures, commodities, REITs, and hedged strategies) were taken to the woodshed by "old-fashioned" approaches.
Market Pulse Report,
Investment Strategy Group, November 2011
It's no secret that navigating this year's highly correlated, macro-driven environment has been difficult. Allocation and stock selection decisions have borne scant reward as risky assets have moved in tandem and longer-term themes have yet to play out. Nevertheless, there is one investment mantra we can always fall back on: buy low, sell high. The concept is simple, and if executed properly, should be easy money. But therein lies the rub—how low is "low" and how high is "high"? Furthermore, how does one avoid the emotional trap that drives most to a herd mentality (buying high and selling low, instead of the other way around)?
Market Pulse Report,
Investment Strategy Group, October 2011
With recession fears receding for the moment, the imminent riskto stock markets and the economy appears to be a European banking crisis brought on by a disorderly Greek default. While the news and possible outcomes seem to change on a daily basis, policymakers in the region appear to recognize the issue's importance and have made some tangible progress to stem the concerns about other countries' abilities to pay their debts.
Quarterly Market Overview,
Investment Strategy Group, September 2011
Stocks faltered in the third quarter and have now declined for five consecutive months. The S&P 500 suffered its worst quarterly loss since the fourth quarter of 2008, as investors were unnerved by a stalling global economy, no resolution to the sovereign debt situation in Europe, ongoing U.S. fiscal problems, and slowing growth in China and other emerging markets. Heading into the fourth quarter, there remain large uncertainties in the markets with disparate outcomes.
Market Pulse Report,
Investment Strategy Group, September 2011
What a difference a quarter makes! A few months ago the U.S. economyappeared to be simply going through a soft patch. Now the perceived risk of recession has increased, brought on by the European mess, our own debt problems, dysfunctional governments, and slowing growth in China and other emerging markets.
Market Pulse Report,
Investment Strategy Group, August 2011
Government bonds have done particularly well in the recent market turmoil. The dramatic decline in yields can be partially explained by a reassessment of economic and inflation prospects, as economic growth has been unacceptably weak and a global recession is a possibility.
Investor Update: S&P Downgrade,
August 2011
The downgrade of the U.S. credit rating by Standard & Poor’s on Friday came on the heels of two dismal weeks in the equity markets and has left many investors reeling. We understand the concern and want to take this opportunity to review what has changed over the last several weeks and what it means to portfolios moving forward.
Addressing Heightened Concerns in the Bond Market,
Matthew Lettinga, CFA®, April 2011
Over the last several months, the municipal bond market has come under intense scrutiny as concerns have grown over mounting debt loads and ongoing budget deficits. This article, featured by Financial Advisor Magazine, addresses the heightened concerns in the municipal bond market.
Investor Update: Japan & Its Implications,
Ronald Albahary, CFA®, April 2011
Earthquakes, tsunamis, food and energy price spikes, near government shutdowns, European sovereign debt downgrades and possibly a third war in the Arab world—how much more can investors, and more importantly, the nascent economic recovery take? The economic ramifications of recent events remain to be seen but investors have taken notice and increased volatility in the financial markets has prevailed over the past few weeks.
Stress in the Middle East,
Ronald Albahary, CFA®, March 2011
Surprisingly, the financial markets have proven resilient and have handled the turmoil in the Middle East relatively well, with most developed markets still in positive territory year-to-date. However, given the importance of these developments, we attempt to provide some insight on a very fluid and evolving situation. |
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